How Many Aviation Mechanic Jobs Are Unfilled?

There are approximately 24,000 unfilled aviation mechanic positions in North America as of 2024, according to Oliver Wyman's MRO Survey. This represents roughly a 9% gap between available qualified mechanics and industry demand. The shortage is projected to worsen substantially — Oliver Wyman forecasts the North American shortfall could reach 40,000 unfilled positions by 2028, representing approximately a 19–20% deficit.

The deficit is driven by accelerating retirements — 45,000+ certificated mechanics are expected to reach retirement age within the next decade. At the same time, 13% North American fleet growth and an MRO "super cycle" are increasing demand. Independent MROs and regional airlines are expected to feel the effects most acutely. Within the US alone, ATEC estimates a 10% shortfall in certificated mechanics for commercial aviation in 2025, equivalent to approximately 5,338 unfilled positions.